I remember some bits of the cerberus files that stood out to me with respect to question 4.
Specifically, in the human economy chapter, it says that 82% of the SA’s heavy industry is in the Sol system, and that its destruction would cripple the entire SA.

So Reapers eating the Solguard and blowing up most of the SA’s industry before landing on Earth and eating the arcologies…

Harbinger’s going to be thinking something like: “How nice of you humans to pack your population into enclosed cities for us to make reaper slushy out of!”

Meanwhile the colonies can’t get the supplies they would otherwise get from Sol, so they would have to get them from aliens or not at all.
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On a related note, wouldn’t TYPHON be triggered by a reaper invasion in Sol?

Mr.Green wrote:

1) Speculation: Damage to Earth

How bad is it? You explained it was fallout and all that stuff. But in terms of damage, how bad?

I know, you said arcology are used to house people. But we had stories, of people outside living there.

Bad.

Roughly 35% of the land is completely uninhabitable. Earth went through two major nuclear exchanges and the environment suffered badly as a result.

Outside the arcologies, aside from transit corridors, the land has gone back to seed for the most part. The cost of cleaning it up is titanic and takes years, mostly involving actually scraping the top level of dirt down to bedrock or substrate stone, dumping it in the antarctic, and using chemically cracked and enriched ‘nudirt’ to replace it.

Radioactivy is still being flung around by the powerful armada storms, which are akin to hurricanes that simply do not stop (like the Great Red Spot, except mobile). A lot of heavy pollutants got into the water and air when things got blown up too.

Is it survivable? Sure … but it is not healthy. Imagine it to be somewhat akin to Fallout, in terms of structural damage (Fallout 1/2, not the Bethseda ones). THe fragments of humanity that refuse to bow to the Systems Alliance and scratch out an existence in the wasteland are pretty much going to die out in another generation or two due to genetic damage…there may be some surviving populations past that point but they won’t be human anymore.

Mutant animals fare a bit better, if only because they’re the survivors — most ‘normal’ animals died out, except those preserved on the Zion station. (Manswell thought this shit out good and basically setup his own gene bank for most foodstuff animals and plants. Almost all farming is done in purpose built arcologies or in orbital stations around Earth.)

Mr.Green wrote:

2) Speculation: Earth’ environment and Nobles

If Earth is so busted up, why are the nobles still wasting money trying to rebuild it. Wouldn’t it be more use, in expanding the arcologies?

Because the cost of moving nine billion people off world would cost even MORE. The damage is pretty severe, but they’ve determined that if they keep working at removing radiation, pollutants, and the like, that the Earth will eventually heal itself.

The second reason is defensability. Unlike canon SA, which had no real reason to be paranoid, the Premiseverse version of Sol is fortified like nothing else in the galaxy except maybe the Hanar homeworld. The asteroid belt is a littered with defensive stations and mass cannons, and Earth is protected by sixteen space stations armed to the teeth.

The only way to Earth is to get past Arcturus, the only way to get past Arcturus is through Nova Terra. Those systems are almost as heavily defended as Sol is.

Finally, the fact remains that as long as most of humanity is in Sol it’s under the direct thumb of the High Lords. A humanity widely diffused is one that could conceivably rebel successfully.

Mr.Green wrote:

3) Speculation: Manswell’ Endgame

What is the Manswell endgame to everything. Assuming, both their plans come to fruition. And neither the Reapers nor Council nor Shepard cometh to smash the party. What will it be?

That’s spoiling everything, dude.

Mr.Green wrote:

4) Speculation: Humans screwed by ME3?

In Canon, we saw how the Reapers steamrolled, a ‘mostly’ lawful humanity. How big will the steamroll be in Premise-ME3?

Canon humanity was weak as hell. The Premiseverse SA would conquer canon SA in about six fucking weeks. Nor is the SA in denial about what is coming, just how long it will take to get here.

The High Lords have been covertly building up massive armies of mind slotted penal legionaries, building new defenses, and making the arcologies even more resistant. the Alliance High Command’s new Sixth Fleet was mostly built using what they could learn from the attack of Nazara and have mag-shields, honeycombing armor segments, and much stronger engine systems based on Reaper tech.

Even for the Reapers Sol is going to be a bitch to take down, which is actually a plot point.

Mr.Green wrote:

5) Speculation: Alien infiltration

Why haven’t the Nobles reacted? Or updated the Commissar’ brain-jar to include countering alien spies, tech or money, affecting Earth.

Namely the biotic cults, investing into Earth tech-gangs. Or having hackers mess around their infosphere.

Trellani has stated in the Cerberus Files – those in charge aren’t stupid. But are they actually doing something, to counter the alien hostility inflicted upon Earth?

Because it serves their purposes to allow it flourish, something people like Minsta can’t (or won’t) see.

Ultimately, the majority of the Lords of the Second and Third Rank are what they are supposed to be — rich, selfless, dedicated to protecting humanity and preventing dictators from rising to power. I’d say ninety-five percent of them would be aghast at the plans for NOVENSILES.

The HIGH Lords, on the other hand, are the same evil assholes who ran the Earth into the ground and then had th audacity to blame democracy for it. And to them alien infiltration of the rank and file is meaningless.

Aliens have zero penetration of the nobility, and any revolt attempt would be crushed — every aspect of the SA, from arcology defence design to even how food get shipped, was designed to prevent the High Lords from losing control. That they don’t bother GOVERNING and MAKING LAWS has convinced people they don’t do anything, but ultimately any big choices get made by them.

The money and tech flowing into Earth is only a problem from the aspect of building up a native economy. Since the plan with NOVENSILES ultimately implies that the High Lords plan to set out on a war of conquest at some point, they really don’t care about the short term — and even better, use such things to find out more about the aliens.